Despite the great success of neural networks (NN) in many application areas, it is still not obvious how to integrate an NN in a sensor fusion framework. The reason is that the computation of the for fusion required variance of NN is still a rather immature area. Here, we apply a methodology from system identification where uncertainty of the parameters in the NN are first estimated in the training phase, and then this uncertainty is propagated to the output in the prediction phase. This local approach is based on linearization, and it implicitly assumes a good signal-to-noise ratio and persistency of excitation. We illustrate the proposed method on a fundamental problem in advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), namely to estimate the tire-road friction. This is a single input single output static nonlinear relation that is simple enough to provide insight and it enables comparisons with other parametric approaches. We compare both to existing methods for how to assess uncertainty in NN and standard methods for this problem, and evaluate on real data. The goal is not to improve on simpler methods for this particular application, but rather to validate that our method is on par with simpler model structures, where output variance is immediately provided.

In urban environments, cellular network-based positioning of user equipment (UE) is a challenging task, especially in frequently occurring non-line-of-sight (NLOS) conditions. This paper investigates the use of two machine learning methods – neural networks and random forests – to estimate the position of UE in NLOS using best received reference signal beam power measurements. We evaluated the suggested positioning methods using data collected from a fifth-generation cellular network (5G) testbed provided by Ericsson. A statistical test to detect NLOS conditions with a probability of detection that is close to 90% is suggested. We show that knowledge of the antenna are crucial for accurate position estimation. In addition, our results show that even with a limited set of training data and one 5G transmission point, it is possible to position UE within 10 meters with 80% accuracy.

In science, technology, and engineering, creating models of the environment to predict future events has always been a key component. The models could be everything from how the friction of a tire depends on the wheels slip  to how a pathogen is spread throughout society.  As more data becomes available, the use of data-driven black-box models becomes more attractive. In many areas they have shown promising results, but for them to be used widespread in safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving some notion of uncertainty in the prediction is required.

An example of such a black-box model is neural networks (NNs). This thesis aims to increase the usefulness of NNs by presenting an method where uncertainty in the prediction is obtained by linearization of the model. In system identification and sensor fusion, under the condition that the model structure is identifiable, this is a commonly used approach to get uncertainty in the prediction from a nonlinear model. If the model structure is not identifiable, such as for NNs, the ambiguities that cause this have to be taken care of in order to make the approach applicable. This is handled in the first part of the thesis where NNs are analyzed from a system identification perspective, and sources of uncertainty are discussed.

Another problem with data-driven black-box models is that it is difficult to know how flexible the model needs to be in order to correctly model the true system. One solution to this problem is to use a model that is more flexible than necessary to make sure that the model is flexible enough. But how would that extra flexibility affect the uncertainty in the prediction? This is handled in the later part of the thesis where it is shown that the uncertainty in the prediction is bounded from below by the uncertainty in the prediction of the model with lowest flexibility required for representing true system accurately. 

In the literature, many other approaches to handle the uncertainty in predictions by NNs have been suggested, of which some are summarized in this work. Furthermore, a simulation and an experimental studies inspired by autonomous driving are conducted. In the simulation study, different sources of uncertainty are investigated, as well as how large the uncertainty in the predictions by NNs are in areas without training data. In the experimental study, the uncertainty in predictions done by different models are investigated. The results show that, compared to existing methods, the linearization method produces similar results for the uncertainty in predictions by NNs.

An introduction video is available at https://youtu.be/O4ZcUTGXFN0